2022年几乎每次的美联储利率决议,特别是FED主席JP的讲话,总是引起美股的负面波动。那么,是投资者预测得不准、过于乐观,还是美联储JP表达含糊不清呢?我把昨天JP的原话先让大家重温:
Quote: “We need to be honest with ourselves that there’s inflation. 12-month core inflation is 6% CPI. That’s three times our 2% target. Now it’s good to see progress, but let’s just understand we have a long ways to go to get back to price stability,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during a press conference. “I don’t think anyone knows whether we’re going to have a recession or not, and, if we do, whether it’s going to be a deep one or not. It’s just – it’s not knowable… The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy. We will stay the course, until the job is done.”
JP的表达直接、清楚、易懂,没有任何含糊不清!言下之意是:
1)不要自欺欺人,那一点点缓和,完全不足以忽视如此高的通货膨胀。
2)离降通胀的目标,远着呢。
3)经济衰退不是美联储担心的,衰退的影响,远远没有通货膨胀带来的价钱混乱的影响所造成的伤害可怕,价钱不稳定,没有经济发展可言,更谈不上创造财富。
4)美联储的货币紧缩政策,不会变,继续加息直到通货膨胀率降到目标 (目前看是起码3%)